XAUUSD rises on tariffs and supply risk

• XAUUSD climbs on trade tensions, safe-haven flows
• Trump tariffs revive fears of global slowdown
• Fed policy speculation supports gold upside
• Crude holds on sanctions, fears and transport risks

Gold (XAUUSD) advanced for a third straight session on Friday, nearing $3,350 per ounce, as investors sought refuge amid a resurgence in global trade tensions. President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric with fresh tariff announcements, including a 35% levy on Canadian imports and plans for broad-based duties targeting major economies and key sectors such as copper and semiconductors. These developments renewed concerns over a potential slowdown in global trade and growth, driving demand for gold as a defensive hedge.

Beyond trade-related anxieties, market participants are increasingly focused on the U.S. monetary policy outlook. Trump’s push for a dramatic 300 basis point rate cut stoked speculation about a future shift in the Federal Reserve’s direction should political influence intensify. That prospect, coupled with longer-term inflation concerns, lent further support to the bullion. Still, the recent labor market data, particularly another drop in jobless claims and last week’s solid payrolls report continues to affirm underlying economic resilience.

Brent oil prices are trading around $68 per barrel on Friday, trying to recover part of the week’s earlier losses as traders responded to a mix of geopolitical risk and emerging demand signals. Anticipation of new sanctions against Russia raised fears of constrained supply, while Red Sea shipping routes came under renewed threat.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia is ramping up exports to China, with August volumes expected to hit a multi-year high, pointing to a potential rebound in Asian demand.

However, those bullish drivers were offset by a downward revision in OPEC’s medium-term demand forecast, now projecting lower growth through 2029 due to weaker-than-expected Chinese consumption.