This Week: US stock indices await Big Tech earnings, US jobs report

• US500 within 10% of record high after recent rebound
   
• Markets still contending with trade war fears and recession risks
   
• Wed, Apr 30: Microsoft, Meta earnings; US 1Q GDP and PCE
   
• Thur, May 1: Apple, Amazon earnings
   
• Fri, May 2: US April jobs report
   
• US500 could either reach 5100 or 5800 on jumbo-sized moves this week.
   

 

The US500 is now within 10% of its all-time high.

This US stock index, which tracks the benchmark S&P 500, has staged a remarkable rebound since falling to within a whisker of the psychological 4800 intraday low on April 7th.

However, this week's events may determine whether the US500's rebound can be extended or will come undone.

 

Here's what global traders and investors have to content with this week (April 28 - May 2, 2025):

Monday, April 28

• SG20 index: Singapore March unemployment
• MXN: Mexico March unemployment and trade balance
• CAD: Canada snap elections

Tuesday, April 29

• EU50 index: Eurozone April economic confidence
• SPN35 index: Spain GDP, CPI
• GER40 index: SPD to vote on backing CDU coalition
• UK100 index: HSBC earnings
• RUS2000 index: US April consumer confidence

Wednesday, April 30

• JP225 index: Japan March retail sales, industrial production
• CN50 index: China PMIs
• AUD: Australia March/1Q CPI
• TWN index: Taiwan 1Q GDP
• EUR: Eurozone 1Q GDP; Germany April CPI, GDP, and unemployment
• US30 index: US 1Q GDP, PCE
• NAS100 index: Meta, Microsoft earnings

Thursday, May 1

• May Day: European markets closed except UK
• AUD: Australia March trade balance
• JPY: Bank of Japan rate decision
• RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; April ISM manufacturing
• NAS100 index: Amazon, Apple earnings

Friday, May 2

• AU200 index: Australia March/1Q retail sales
• JP225 index: Japan March jobless rate
• EUR: Eurozone April CPI; March unemployment
• US500 index: US April nonfarm payrolls; March factory orders

 

 

Events Watchlist:

• Wednesday, April 30th: Meta, Microsoft earnings (after US markets close)

The AI theme will remain front and centre of the respective announcements, especially in light of Microsoft's apparent pullback in data centre investments, while earnings outlooks will be framed by the threat of a recession/trade war.

When US markets reopen on Thursday (May 1st) ...

Meta is forecasted to move 7.1% up/down, while Microsoft is forecasted to post a 4.4% reaction either direction.

With a combined market cap of US$4.1 trillion, the reaction to these earnings is set to shake the US500.

 

• Thursday, May 1st: Amazon, Apple earnings (after US markets close)

Similarly, the announcements out of Amazon and Apple – with a combined market cap of US$5.15 trillion - will be scoured for the latest clues on the AI play, as well as trade war risks on future earnings.

When US markets reopen Friday (May 2nd) ...

Amazon is expected to move 5.9%, while Apple’s reaction is forecasted at 4.2% either direction.

 

• Friday, May 2nd: US April nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Economists predict that the US added 132,000 new jobs in April, lower than March’s 228k headline NFP figure.

However, the unemployment rate (4.2%) and average hourly earnings (0.3% m/m; 3.9% y/y) are expected to remain steady.

Overall, a better-than-expected US jobs report which dilutes fears about a US recession or stagflation could help the US500 extend its recovery, assuming prior developments in the week also emboldens bulls.

 

 

US500: Potential Scenarios

• BULLISH: Better-than-expected US tech earnings outlooks, along with further easing of trade tensions and a still-resilient jobs market, could see US500 testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for resistance, with the big, round, 5800 number slightly further north for stronger resistance.
  This assumes the 50-day SMA can be conquered as initial resistance.

 

• BEARISH: Deteriorating US tech earnings outlooks, along with further escalation in global trade tensions and a weakening jobs market, could see US500 testing 5400 psychological number and 21-day SMA for immediate support.
  A sharp selloff may eventually see the US500 revisiting its April 21st intraday low at its recent cycle low right on the 5100 level for critical support.

 

 

S&P 500 US500 Big Tech Earnings Stocks indices Nonfarm Payrolls US jobs report Recession Trade Tensions President Trump