This Week: Nvidia Earnings, Germany & Tokyo CPI, US PCE Data

• GER40 rebounds above 22,400 after German election
   
• Nvidia earnings may push NAS100 to new record highs
   
• USDJPY volatility expected with Tokyo CPI, US PCE data
   
• Germany’s CPI, unemployment data to impact GER40 index
   
• Global markets eye US PCE, key inflation gauge for Fed

As we enter the final week of February, we’re about to witness a series of major events that could spark massive moves across various asset classes.
 

• The GER40 rebounds above 22,400 following the pivotal Germany elections
   
• The NAS100 index has been teasing fresh record highs ahead of Nvidia’s mid-week earnings release
   
• USDJPY is set to move over 0.4% up/down when inflation data is released on either side of the Pacific on Friday

Traders might be remiss if they let the upcoming opportunities pass them by before March rolls along.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Monday, Feb 24th: Market reaction to Sunday’s Germany federal election – GER40 stock index

Although the GER40 index has eased below its record high, it still has a year-to-date gain of more than 12% – one of our best-performing stock indexes so far this year.

In a market-friendly outcome, Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the election, with early results confirming the expected dominance of Friedrich Merz's bloc, in line with pre-election polls. At the same time, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made a historic breakthrough, winning 20.8% of the vote.
 

• Wednesday, Feb 26th: NVIDIA earnings (after US markets close) – NAS100 stock index

This has been dubbed the most important event for global stock markets in recent years, and NVIDIA’s stocks are forecasted to move 7% up/down when US markets reopen Thursday. If NVIDIA can once again reinvigorate the AI-mania that has faltered of late, that may well push the NAS100 index to new all-time highs.

• Friday, Feb 28th: Tokyo February CPI and US January PCE - USDJPY

Economists predict the headline Tokyo CPI will ease lower to 3.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI edged up to 2%. Later that day, economists predict the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – edged higher to 0.3% month-on-month.

Depending which nation’s inflation readings deliver the bigger market surprise, it could determine whether JPY is still the G10’s best-performing currency versus USD so far in 2025 (USDJPY: down 4.5% year-to-date).

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
 

Monday, February 24

• EUR: Germany election reaction, February IFO business climate; Eurozone January CPI (final)
   
• SG20 index: Singapore January CPI
   

Tuesday, February 25

• GER40 index: Germany 4Q GDP (final)
   
• TWN index: Taiwan January industrial production
   
• US30 index: US February consumer confidence; speeches by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr
   

Wednesday, February 26

• SGD: Singapore January industrial production
   
• THB: Bank of Thailand rate decision
   
• TWN index: Taiwan 4Q/2024 GDP
   
• USDInd: Speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
   
• Nvidia earnings
   

Thursday, February 27

• EUR: ECB meeting minutes; Eurozone February consumer confidence
   
• RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; 4Q GDP (second est.)
   
• USDInd: Speeches by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
   
• MXN: Mexico January unemployment, trade balance
   

Friday, February 28

• JPY: February Tokyo CPI; Japan January retail sales and industrial production
   
• THB: Thailand January external trade
   
• SEK: Sweden 4Q GDP; January retail sales
   
• GER40 index: Germany February CPI, unemployment
   
• ZAR: South Africa January trade balance
   
• CAD: Canada December GDP
   
• US500 index: US January PCE; speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee