This Week: Can CAD Catch Up to Its G10 Peers?

• CAD is the weakest G10 currency YTD, up 0.13% against USD
   
• USDCAD may trade between 1.4196 – 1.4529 this week
   
• Markets remain bearish on CAD versus the US dollar
   
• BoC may cut rates again, weakening the Canadian dollar
   
• US CPI and US Gov. shutdown risks could shake the forex market

At the time of writing, the Canadian dollar is the G10 currency that has the smallest year-to-date advance against the US dollar, standing at just 0.13%.
 

For comparison, the Swedish Krona has a 9.77% advance vs the buck so far in 2025. Can CAD close the gap on its G10 peers over the coming days?

Amid the list of major scheduled events, Bloomberg’s FX model predicts USDCAD is likeliest (75.9% chance) to trade between 1.4196 and 1.4529 this week.
 

Note also, out of all G10 currencies, markets remain most bearish on the Canadian dollar’s prospects against the US dollar this week.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Mon, March 10th: Markets react to new Canadian Prime Minister

Current PM Justin Trudeau is set to step down after his Liberal Party chooses his replacement, with a general election the due over the coming months. Subsiding political uncertainty may encourage CAD bulls who are eager to jump on the bandwagon where all other G10 currencies have year-to-date gains versus the greenback.

• Wed, March 12th: US February consumer price index (CPI)

Economists predict both headline and core inflation – as measured by the CPI – to ease lower from January, both on a month-on-month (Feb 2024 vs. Jan 2024) and year-on-year (Feb 2025 vs. Feb 2024) basis. Higher-than-expected CPI figures, amid a darkening economic outlook, could mean a weaker US dollar and a lower USDCAD.

• Wed, March 12th: Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision

Just 45 minutes after the US CPI release, the BoC is expected (73% chance) to trigger another 25-basis point rate cut – its 7th consecutive cut, bringing total cuts to 225-bps since mid-2024. If the BoC signals even more cuts are incoming, perhaps to offset the US-Canada trade war, that could push USDCAD higher on the weaker Loonie.

• Fri, March 14th: US government shutdown?

Here we go again: this Friday marks the latest deadline for US lawmakers to secure a spending deal or risk yet another federal government shutdown. Although markets have gotten accustomed to such political noise over the years, a shutdown amid a darkening US economic outlook could drag the US dollar and USDCAD lower.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
 

Monday, March 10

• CAD: Markets react to new Canadian prime minister
   
• XAU: China tariffs on US agricultural goods take effect
   
• GER40 index: Germany January industrial production, trade balance
   

Tuesday, March 11

• AU200 index: Australia Feb business confidence; March consumer confidence
   
• JP225 index: Japan January household spending; 4Q GDP (final)
   
• RUS2000 index: US January JOLTS job openings
   

Wednesday, March 12

• JPY: Japan February PPI
   
• XAU: Deadline to impose 25% US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports
   
• US500 index: US February CPI
   
• CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
   

Thursday, March 13

• EU50 index: Eurozone January industrial production
   
• RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; February PPI
   

Friday, March 14

• NZD: New Zealand February manufacturing PMI
   
• EUR: Germany February CPI (final)
   
• GBP: UK January GDP, industrial production, trade balance
   
• US30 index: US March consumer sentiment
   
• USDInd: US government shutdown deadline