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Euro still locked in November 30 trading range

The EURUSD pair fell 0.17% to 1.1301 on Thursday, December 2. The DXY index came  under pressure during European trading as the single currency rose to 1.1348. Buyers pared all gains during the North American session, with price action moving in the range of 1.1300-1.1355. The shift in cross pair trader sentiment exerted an adverse impact on the key pair with the dollar.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT+3)  

  • 11:30 EU: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • 11:45 Italy: HIS market services PMI (November)
  • 11:50 France: market services PMI (November)
  • 11:55 Germany: market services PMI (November)
  • 12:00 Eurozone: market services PMI (November)
  • 12:30 UK: CIPS services PMI
  • 13:00 Eurozone: retail sales (October)
  • 16:30 Canada: unemployment rate, employment change (November)
  • 16:30 US: non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, unemployment rate (November)
  • 18:00 US: ISM non-manufacturing (November)
  • 18:00 US: factory orders (October)
  • 21:00 US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count

Current outlook

Major currencies have been trading slightly lower this morning. Antipodeans have seen the steepest losses against the dollar. Selling picked up after sluggish macro data came out of China. The Caixin services PMI in November fell short of the consensus estimate and the previous reading.

Meanwhile, tensions are mounting between the US and China over Taiwan and the previously imposed tariffs. The US and the EU believe that China's actions in the Taiwan Strait undermine peace in the region and affect their security and prosperity.

Stateside, NFPs are scheduled for release today. If the report disappoints the market, a rally to 1.14 can be expected. But if the data surprises to the upside, we should expected a decline to 1.1235. At 15:00 GMT the ISM non-manufacturing index for November will be released. This means that heightened volatility can be expected in the run-up to the FOMC meeting on December 14-15).

Technical analysis

Buyers saw their gains eroded on Thursday, but remained in the 1.1235-1.1383 price range from November 30. Today’s price action will be driven by the NFP print.

The key pair is currently trading near the 45-degree angle of the Gann fan at 1.1291. Support from the trendline (1.1186 low) crosses the 1.1272 level. NFPs are due out at 13:30 GMT, so sellers may have time to reach that level before payrolls hit the wires.

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